Seasonal Prediction of Indian Monsoon(SPIM)
The Indian summer monsoon is a manifestation of complex interactions between land, ocean and atmosphere and the simulation of its mean pattern and its variability on inter-annual scales is one of the challenging problems in climate studies. The correct prediction of this complex phenomenon is vital to national planning and economic policy making. But despite the major advances in atmospheric sciences, simulation and prediction of the Indian summer monsoon remains as a serious challenge.
SPIM team is dedicated towards contributing to this research through development of applications based on high performance computing and advanced mathematical methods. The availability of high performance computing systems such as PARAM supercomputing facilities enable us to run coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations in the country. An 100 year simulation using coupled ocean-atmosphere model was conducted by the team on PARAM Padma computing system. This collaborative activity with IISc provided many useful insights on the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect on the Indian summer monsoon ( Current Science, 2005, 89, 1555 – 1562).
SPIM team conducts research on advanced numerical methods and dynamics of the atmosphere model kernels. Atmosphere/Ocean model kernels are system of partial differential equations on the spherical geometry. A variable resolution global spectral method that produces higher resolution over the tropical region to study monsoon cycles and tropical systems is under development. This is a collaborative effort with Center of Atmospheric Science, IISc and Centre for Applicable Mathematics, TIFR-Bangalore. The results of these efforts were presented in the forums such as ‘Workshop on the Solution of Partial Differential Equations on the Sphere’ at Earth Simulator Center, Yokohama, Japan (2004) and at UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK (2007).
A DST funded project on ‘Seasonal Prediction of Indian Monsoon’ is executed by the team during 2005 – 2007 in collaboration with Indian Institute of Science. The project achieved its objective of assessing the skill and error levels of atmospheric global circulation models used by different modeling groups in the country for predicting Indian Monsoon ahead of its season. Six modeling teams from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, National Aerospace Laboratories, Bangalore, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore(in collaboration with India Meteorological Department) participated in this project. The Atmospheric General circulation models were run on PARAM Padma Terascale Computing Facility, in hindcast mode with ensemble of initial conditions of the past data of 1985 – 2002. The skill scores and error levels of this model simulations were used for determining and analyzing the error levels of the respective models for seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon.